In the heated landscape of Planet Fitba apropos match officials, I wanted an evidence-based analysis of the season so far.
Therefore, I was very grateful to receive this analysis from Alan Morrison of Celtic By Numbers.
Alan is also a mainstay on the Huddle Breakdown.
Ok, here we go:
Hi Phil
You asked me about trends in the data regarding the “honest mistakes” in the SPFL this season.
Firstly, and not to completely shut down your question, the instances of questionable decisions are quite a small sample (insert your own joke here). Therefore, I would be cautious about drawing absolute conclusions over what is a small number of events.
That being said, I will give you what I have.
Honest Mistake Framework
This a reminder that I have written a framework to allow for the assessment of “honest mistakes” or big, game-changing decisions that impact the top two in the SPFL (I would extend this if there were other genuine challengers).
An independent, professional referee from the area I live (South Yorkshire) who happens to support Sheffield Wednesday and has no links or affiliations to the Scottish game assesses those big calls and gives a judgement as to whether they are correct or not. He acted as a virtual VAR before the reality of such a thing came into being in Scotland.
He goes by the moniker the “Yorkshire Whistler” (YW). For further transparency, this is an individual I was put into contact with through the local football network and whom I have never personally met. I am grateful for the time and effort he puts into his incredibly thorough reasoning for each decision.
2022/23 Season
This season is notable in that the winners of the SPFL will once again receive an automatic entry to the lucrative UEFA Champions League. This involves access to significant funds well beyond the normal distributions and allocations available in day-to-day domestic football.
In short, the stakes are very high. Only the Champions are guaranteed this bounty (worth around £22m to Celtic this season in prize money alone). However, as we have seen this season, a plucky run can provide access through the qualification route. This is fraught with danger, as we well know.
All that context out the way, what has been the pattern of big decision outcomes this season, one in which Virtual Assistant Referee (VAR) was rushed in part way through the calendar?
July to September 2022
The early part of the season saw relatively few incidents that were referred to the YW being overturned.
Up to and including Celtic’s 4-0 thumping Derby win, the Champions only had one incident incorrectly called, and it went in their favour. Jota’s goal against Dundee United on the 28th August (the 4th in an eventual 9-0 hammering) was given even though subsequent analysis showed he should have been flagged offside. This had a tiny impact on the overall result.
In this initial period, there were no big calls that negatively impacted Celtic, according to the Yorkshire Whistler.
Meanwhile, on the other side of the city, it was a mixed picture.
There were three calls that the YW deemed errors that had a negative impact for The Rangers:
- On opening day, Antonio Colak scored a goal against Livingston that was incorrectly ruled out for offside.
- On the 20th August, John Lundstram was sent off in a match at Easter Road that The Rangers would go onto draw 2-2. The YW deemed he should have been shown a Yellow Card.
- On 27th August, a Ross County player blocked a cross with his hand in a manner the YW would deem required the sanction of a penalty kick but this was not awarded. The Rangers would go onto win 4-0.
Balancing that out, they also benefitted from three decisions:
- Alfredo Morelos scored from an offside position in the 88th minute at home to Kilmarnock on the 6th This clinched a 2-0 win.
- On the 13th August, Colak scored from an offside position against St Johnstone. This was the 2nd goal in a 4-0 win.
- In the tempestuous 20th August clash with Hibernian, Colak “won” a penalty with a simulated action and should have been cautioned for that, instead a penalty was awarded. This broke the deadlock.
At the international break following the Derby match, the net impact of all those mistakes as measured by my expected points framework, estimated that Celtic had benefitted by 0.05 xPts and The Rangers by 0.01 xPts. I’d suggest that is what a “normal” distribution of mistakes would look like.
17th September 2022 – Present
It may be purely coincidental, given the small sample sizes, but the distribution of errors has changed markedly in the period after the 4-0 Derby.
Note that VAR was rushed into action on 22nd October 2022. I wondered if this would render the YW redundant as he had, de facto, been operating as a virtual VAR. Oh boy was I mistaken!
Back to the trends in this period.
In terms of raw numbers, from 19th September onwards, Celtic have had eight big calls impact them negatively that the YW deemed incorrect:
- 18th September – Jonah Ayunga of St Mirren scored a goal that should have been disallowed for a foul by him on a Celtic defender – Celtic lost 0-2.
- 1st October – Ricky Lamie of Motherwell blocked a cross into the box with an outstretched arm, but no penalty was awarded. Lamie was also on a yellow card at the time.
- 8th October – Alex Mitchell scored a 93rd-minute leveller for St Johnstone from a free kick, and the officials missed Jenz being impeded that should have seen the goal disallowed. Giorgos Giakoumakis would then go on to score a very late winner.
- 30th October – Celtic are correctly awarded a penalty for handball against Livingston. However, Andrew Shinnie should have been cautioned, meaning a red card for two bookable offences, but he was not.
- 5th November – Alex Bernabei is penalised for a handball and penalty when it hits his arm, which is positioned behind his back against Dundee United.
- 9th November – Jota has a goal disallowed for offside despite there being no public evidence of the offside versus Motherwell. Indeed, the necessary technology had failed. I covered that in detail here.
- 12th November – the ball rears up and hits Matt O’Riley’s arm, and a penalty is wrongly awarded against Ross County.
- 21st December – Liel Abada scored what would be a game-clinching third goal against Motherwell that is incorrectly disallowed for offside.
Meanwhile, The Rangers have had three big calls go in their favour:
- 17th September – Jamie McGrath of Dundee United was brought down inside The Rangers box in the 89th minute of a match. His side trailed 1-2. No penalty was awarded.
- 8th October – Colak once again simulates a foul in the St Mirren box, which the referee buys as a penalty incorrectly.
- 8th January – ball hits Conor Goldson’s arm in the box versus Dundee United, but no penalty awarded when 0-0.
The Absence of Things
What is remarkable about The Rangers and the trend of honest mistakes is the almost complete absence of negative (for them) incidents in their games.
Whilst most clubs in the SPFL have their VAR horror story, since September, The Rangers have been free from any negative impacts.
That is not to say there perhaps should not have been. What I mean is, virtually all other clubs have suffered, in particular, from the flexibility and discretion the handball law allows. But not The Rangers.
Celtic’s Woes
Equally remarkable have been some of the incidents impacting Celtic (always negatively).
- The 9th November Jota disallowed goal at Motherwell appears to show that the VAR David Dickinson failed to follow the SFA protocols on giving the benefit of the doubt to the attacking team when an offside decision is too close to call (no definitive image of offside being available). Not only did he choose to penalise Celtic, the SFA subsequently appeared to try and cover this error up by misrepresenting how the VAR process works and misstating the offside law.
- The 21st December disallowed goal by Abada versus Motherwell is remarkable because the on-field officials initially correctly allowed the goal. VAR is only supposed to intervene when a “clear and obvious” error has occurred. This was not the case here, as the goal was correctly allowed. VAR intervened to make an incorrect decision and essentially re-referee the game. Which is precisely what it is NOT supposed to do.
- Similarly, on 24th December, David Turnbull was cautioned for a high boot that caught the St Johnstone goalkeeper. Given Turnbull’s eyes never wavered from the ball, the referee correctly cautioned him for reckless play. However, VAR intervened, in a matter that was not a clear and obvious error, to force the yellow card to be upgraded to a red. That sending-off meant Turnbull would miss the Glasgow Derby through suspension.
As I keep saying, it will all even out by the end of the season, but I note that Ange Postecoglou would disagree!
Ok, there you have it.
My takeaway from the foregoing is that there was a discernible change from early September.
I’ve spoken to Alan, and I got a gold star in my Jota for picking this up!
So why did this change come about at the start of the season?
Well, that month started for Sevco with the four-nil battering at Celtic Park on September 3rd.
On the 7th, four days later, they were on the wrong end of the same scoreline at the hands of Ajax. Then there was, mercifully, an international break.
After that, on the 14th, Napoli arrived at the stadium John Brown played for and comfortably dispatched Sevco three-nil.
It was during this time that Mr Giovanni went off message in post-match pressers. The likeable Dutchman simply told the truth about the financial situation at the basket of assets.
On the 17th of September, again at Ibrox, Dundee United, then trailing two one in the match, had a very clear penalty claim dismissed.
That was in the 89th minute.
You will note that there is no mention of this in the BBC match report.
Sadly, the analysis that Alan has carried out here and my own accompanying commentary are entirely missing from the mainstream media on Planet Fitba.
Dear reader that might be a clue as to why these honest mistakes keep happening.
The role of the Fourth Estate is to hold power to account, and the Stenography Corps fail on this count time and time again.
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And to add to the “honest mistakes” theme in yesterdays League Cup semi final between Aberdeen and Sevco in a game where Aberdeen were clearly making a fist of it and the game into injury time heading for another half hour of extra time, a straight red shown to Dons defender Stewart for what looked a hefty challenge but ask yourself if would it have been the same if committed down the other end by “Tav” or Goldson for example?
Anyway a few mins after the Stewart dismissal Kent who thought Scales was paying him too close attention decides to strike Scales clearly with hand / fist and nothing done about it dies this not fall under violent conduct?
The ref may have missed it and if so why wasn’t it flagged by an assistant or VAR which was still “operational” at the time i think?
A level playing field of 10 v 10 could have provided a different result had Aberdeen dug in and won in extra time or on penalties but also couldn’t help noticing a number of after match reports made no reference to the Kent punch including the BBC website who had him as their man of the match,beggars belief to be honest.
hi Phil , you are acting in the best traditions of journalism unlike the vast majority of the Scottish MSM !
Very fair assessment of good cop bad cop massively balanced in favour of old firm fc…all in all it can be summed up ” Zero penalties awarded Against new club so far this season ” Var can never work under SFA hierarchy with the keystone kops assisting the new keystone kops …bit like the mafia being being investigated by Don Corleone “
I don’t subscribe to the “it evens itself out over a season theory) does that mean a ref makes a mistake in a game then decides he may let that team off with something the next time he’s involved in a game with the same team ? That may be a little bit simplistic ! but evening things out later screams match fixing to me.
Alan Morrison is correct to say that we should focus on the trends, rather than each incident in isolation – though these isolated incidents certainly bgin to stack up! The trends certainly suggest – to me, at least – that the referees are “non-competent” (I’ll try to avoid the use of the words “incompetent”, or “biased” here), which in turn would suggest that they need retraining on the laws of the game, and how these laws should be interpreted and enforced. This may be the key as to why Scottish refs have not been represented at major international tournaments, such as the Euros, and the FIFA World Cup. Again – I will go on record here by stating that the “powers” that the Lanarkshire Referees Association appear to wield should not be understated, or overlooked. Perhaps now would be a good time to have, say, a referee from outwith Glasgow and the West of Scotland, officiate future Glasgow Derbies.
Considering that, only a few years ago, the FBI investigated corruption within the corridors of FIFA, it is not stretching credibility to point an accusatory finger in the direction of Hampden. To borrow a phrase from William Shakespeare’s Hamlet, “something is rotten in the state of Denmark”. Time to stop the rot, I think!!
The farce at Tynecastle on weekend one seems to be missing? Add that and it’s worse.
Alan is absoutely correct in stating sample size: a statistical analysis of several seasons would/should be conclusive, but of course, Scottish football can’t wait that long.
Interesting observation post the September derby game though.
And here’s another thought.
As our very own “non-World Class” match officials were not invited to the World Cup, yet again.
how did the SFA and The Scottish Referees’ Assocaition use this 4 weeks break in the middle of the season?
Was the opportunity taken to have a formal review of VAR decisions so far this season?
Were match and VAR officials given refresher / updated training based on VAR ‘controversies’ so far this season?
Did both bodies just ignore this opportunity to improve VAR for Scottish football,
and just take an undeserved break?
…and does SFA CEO Maxwell know what the acronym VAR stands for? 🙂
The media are using the age old celtic paranoia agenda to mascaras this bias.
The subjective line rolled out many times also.
What stinks is the over analysis of celtic decisions and the wave on anything in our favour.
It’s also when these events happen and their impact on the result, which I think Alan covers in his main articles
Can’t believe that TRFC Vs DUN utd game when Fletcher get nudged in the box 1(possible pen)but still managed to head to ball towards on coming Unted player arriving in the box, as well as hitting Ryan Jack’s arm that changes the flight of the ball 2(possiblepen), = PEN, Hardly got mentioned on SKY think they were to busy justify Goldson ✋ hand ball the one when his hands were defo by his side..🤔
The YW deemed that both decisions in the Derby game were called correctly.
Lawwell returns…Transfers ( in and out ) become “protracted “.
Coincidence ?
He would never had sanctioned the £4m + for Kyogo ..would have offered £1.5 m , then walked away
Very very sad day when he returned .
Totally agree…But that’s Celtic for you.
You do not know that. You might think it but it is nothing but an expression of your own fear that PL’s return means a return of PL’s power.
He has NO executive power, that lies with The Chief Executive Officer and other executives at Celtic.
I do appreciate the reason for the fear (I’ve had dealings with PL )but that is all it is – fear. All the evidence in how football operations now work is that you have nothing to fear. I also have had dealings with the executives so do not share it.
In terms of the concerns his return causes I well understand them, I thought it might halt the reimbursement RES12 legal costs that went to The Foundation as because PL’s role in that is pretty well known, but it didn’t.
There are other reasons he may have returned. Time will show.
Well, at least there’s one individual at ibrox that’s aware and can even teach others, now that can only be a good thing; as well as a surprise.
And Phil to answer your headline question… there is ‘always’ a trend to honest mistakes in Unfair Fitba in Caledonia… ‘always’
Thanks to Alan and his friendly whistler on this one, appreciated.
Hi all, Alan here. Inevitably people focus on individual incidents. See my site for a thorough review by the Yorkshire Whistler of them.
You will not agree with them all but then you are probably like me and a) biased and b) not conversant with the laws of football.
In the context of this piece the individual events are less important.
The point here is to focus on trends. Thanks for reading.
Rangers v Hibs there was a hand ball by Sands at a critical stage of the game, no penalty. Rangers v Aberdeen there were three handballs by Rangers, none given as fouls or penalties. Tavernier used his arm to divert a cross in their box onto the post. Goldson used his arm to divert the ball for them to score. Sakala used his arm to control the ball before scoring. All of theses were at critical times in games and during a period after Beale arrived and they were not playing at all well.
The key here is…Since the 4-0 hammering of Sevco by celtic….
Shameful bias in Scottish sport.
Also missed was the clear hand ball by the hearts player in our 4-3 victory. I believe the score was 2-1 to hearts at the time. A clearer pen you’ll never see.
JS
Good shout. Wasn’t there also an Abada “goal” in that game that was chalked off, with no TV pics shown (at the time or since) of the VAR lines that allegedly showed he was offside? That would have made it 4-2 and allowed us to see the game out more easily and with less risk of injury, or a late equaliser.
Why isn’t the Goldson handball in the recent derby match at Ibrox listed here? Or have I just missed it (apologies if so – reading these on a phone can be tricky)? That surely has to be a biggie too, in terms of potentially costing Celtic two points from a game they would have won, rather than drawn, all else being equal. Not to mention them obviously facing just a 9 point deficit, as a result, not 12 points. Otherwise a great read, Phil, and a great bit of research, Alan. Please keep up the good work. VAR is clearly only as fair, impartial and effective as the person operating it, as I keep saying, so the more evidence we have that this is more than just paranoia (as Fat Swally et al claim) the better.
It’s not mentioned as the YW (CbN’s independent assessor) didn’t consider it a penalty, as he’s also supported some other decisions that a lot of fans considered wrong.
I’ve not seen (nor read CbN summary) Goldson’s against DU but reading descriptions it seems to have been ‘less of a penalty’, so I’m surprised its been ‘overturned’.
On a side note, it’s a shame we don’t have a Goalkeeper of the Month, as he’s surely be the top contender!
His handball vs United was definitely not “less of a penalty” than against us. I still say derby game one was a penalty, but I accept the rationale behind not giving. The Dundee United one though was clear. Even worse was Ryan Jack’s.
Someone above mentioned Sands’ against Hibs. To me that’s not a penalty. He’s unbalanced and arms out because of that and contact from hibs player. Right call, could’ve potentially even given Sevco a free kick for the hibs push.
His other one though was the thundering challenge mid pitch where he should have been sent off.
Very interesting reading,the Glasgow derby on the 2nd Jan,appears to have been missed,with its dodgy penalty decisions,maybe I read through it all too fast ! Liam