This time four years ago the people of Scotland were sovereign.
For the first time in their history, they had the power to decide their future.
However, that only lasted while the polling stations were open on September 18th 2014.
The 1707 deal was an arrangement between the ruling class of Scotland and the London state.
However, 2014 was different.
“IndyRef” was, to borrow a phrase from the Brexit debate “a people’s vote”.
In the end, it was decisive.
The NO vote was 2,001,926 [55.3%]
The YES vote was 1,617,989 [44.7%]
Since then the pro-independence side has made all the running.
During the campaign, I interviewed several of the YES side who were utilising new media platforms.
I had a simple questions for them:
“What happens if you guys lose, but get 45% of the vote?”
No one answered me.
Instead, they blithely stated that they would win comfortably.
I believe that they believed it.
It was groupthink.
They were only speaking to themselves and the idea that there as a majority of silent NO voters out there was an appalling vista for them.
In the immediate aftermath of the referendum result, the SNP experienced melting servers as there was a deluge of folk wanting to join the party.
Since then they have become the dominant force in Scottish politics.
The independence referendum campaign seemed a dramatic moment in the Scotland’s auld sang…
I think my stage play “Hame” was the first to deal with IndyRef and it was performed as part of the Saint Patrick’s festival in Glasgow in 2015.
Towards the end of the play, one of the characters William Montgomery is arrested for his part in the klan celebrations in George Square after the result was confirmed.
Since then the drama has continued and Brexit has entered stage right.
Far right…
Displaying a lawyer’s elusiveness with language the new SNP leader Ms Nicola Sturgeon MSP allowed herself an out from the generational nature of the IndyRef vote.
The term “material change in the circumstances” was open to wide interpretation.
Now those true believers are kept warm at night with the tantalising prospect of “IndyRef2”.
No doubt they will believe, just as they did in 2014, that they will win.
At the time of the campaign in 2014, I was asked by a senior Republican here what might be the outcome.
I was unequivocal and I told him that the NO side would win with a bit to spare.
At that point, he had been listening to my laborious political assessments for over twenty years and I’m sure he was sick to death of my endless caveats.
Consequently, he was rather taken aback my the stark assertion.
“You sure”? he asked.
“Completely, they’ll bottle it.” I replied.
As you know Scotland the brave didn’t prove me wrong.
It was a victory for “Project Fear”.
The thought that kept coming back to me in the weeks leading up to the referendum in 2014 was that all the Scots had to do was vote.
I contrasted this with the experience of my grandparents in the West of Ireland during the Tan War and what the nationalist communities in the Six Counties had endured under British occupation.
My grandmother’s brother Michael is in there somewhere in Frongoch camp.
You will note the fetching outfits of the British soldiers guarding them.
Rather ironically, the only folk on this island who were openly hostile to the idea of an independent Scotland were people who would strongly identify with Fair Caledonia.
Indeed they self-define as “Ulster Scots”.
On the night of the count, I was in the wide open space of the Lowland Hall at the Royal Highland Centre in Ingliston.
Throughout the night it became increasingly clear that NO would win.
Prime Minister Cameron wasted no time in putting the boot in outside his official residence in Downing Street.
Later on, he would let it slip that the British Monarch had “purred down the phone” on hearing the result.
Of course, IndyRef wasn’t a vote on the monarchy.
Moreover, the independence on offer seemed very lukewarm at any rate.
If they had voted YES the Scots would still have had Frau Saxe-Coburg-Gotha as their hereditary head of state.
They would also have had the Pound Sterling as their currency.
From my vantage point in the Republic of Ireland, this really didn’t seem like independence at all.
Perhaps this shouldn’t be surprising.
The Scottish ruling class who put their signatures to the Act of Union in 1707 knew what they were doing.
They had just failed in their own imperialist project in Central America and they saw better opportunities in a unified British state.
It is fair to say that it was a smart move and they prospered as “North Britons”.
The Scots played a disproportionate role in administering the British Empire from Ireland to India.
I believe it is that colonial experience that the YES side discounted in 2014 and it was a strategic error.
The Scots as colonisers and not colonised was a heritage that remains an important component in the glue of Britishness.
Certainly, the ambience on matchdays at Ibrox would suggest that the independence movement has serious work in front of them.
My next novel is set in the future during a period where there is a clamour for IndyRef2 in the Post-Brexit landscape.
I have yet to work out if it will be a happy ending.
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The Articles of Union (also known as the Treaty) is a treaty in international law. It embeds compulsory anti-Catholic requirement into the Constitution of Scotland and UK.
Read Article 2:
“And that all Papists, and Persons marrying Papists, shall be excluded from, and for ever incapable to inherit, possess, or enjoy the imperial Crown of Great-Britain…”
The Articles were drafted by Commissioners and were then enacted by the two Parliaments via The Act of Union with Scotland 1706 and the Act of Union with England 1707. These 2 Acts repeat the anti-Catholic intent of the Articles, creating second class citizens in this country. The very creation of the United Kingdom thereby bolsters the position of the unionist/loyalist and the demeans those of Catholic (and only Catholic) persuasion in this country.
Not sure what’s the point of this comment, as whether Indy or not, Queenie and her clan and succession will be exactly the same.
Thanks for reading and commenting on my post, The Cha. My point is the “ambience on matchdays at Ibrox” is given powerful establishment support by the historical constitutional requirement that is the essence of the Union. Agreed, it won’t change in our lifetime unless someone finds the balls to do something about it.
Secondly I just wanted to clarify the fact of a Treaty (the Articles) and the 2 enabling Acts that brought the Treaty into force, as folk often confuse this. See Prof David Walker: http://www.journalonline.co.uk/Magazine/52-6/1004238.aspx
Have I missed the currency decision? Pound? Euro? Unicorns?
I feel like crying when I read this. I only wish I had the conviction and courage to do more to help the cause of Independence. I long to live in a fairer society and the only way I see this happening is in an independent Scotland. When I think about the likely outcomes of Brexit I can only despair. I fear for my children’s future.
“I long to live in a fairer society and the only way I see this happening is in an independent Scotland.”
Why?
There is already loads of evidence that the education system in Scotland fully under control of the Scottish Government is already loaded against the poorest (surprisingly much worse than in England) and the huge reduction in grants for higher education now largely replaced by loans is a huge free tuition bung to the middle class.
The evidence is out there – if you have an open mind.
The early hours of September 15th, 2014 left me sick to my core, preening Tories and Labourites clinking glasses in celebration of the NAW vote. The evening of September 15th, 2014 left me very angry as the troglodyte masses of Unionism descended on George Square and laid into a very peaceful crowd of Indy loving Scots. When the media labelled it as a tit for tat affair I felt even angrier.
A recent poll, conducted in the days after allegations about Alex Salmond where writ large in the media, shows that YES now sits at 59%. The media will still tell you, case in point BBC Scotland, that the polls have barely moved but let’s see how, or even if, they tell the electorate about that one.
Brexit has obviously been a factor but then so has the unravelling of the Unionist promises issued days before the vote. The Grand Dames of Labour and the Lib Dems have recently been at it again, preaching against independence so you know that the call for Indy2 has them rattled.
An oxymoron that I can’t get my head around is that there are sections of the Celtic support who will sing endlessly about a unified Ireland and setting the six counties free but who still voted against an independent Scotland.
Hi Phil great read. I was working in the shetlands when the vote was on but I couldnt tell which way the vote was going, all the same there were a fair few dissapointed scots the morning of the result. As for frongoch,my paternal grandfather probably cut your great uncles hair as he was one of the camp barbers. Small world.
Project Fear won the day. Scots were told we’d be kicked out of the EU if we dared vote Yes yet the majority of indigenous Scots stood firm and voted for independence.
Problem was the half million or so English voters living in Scotland. The vast majority of them stood, unsurprisingly, by the union.
Then there was the EU nationals living here. They too had a say in the matter and, again unsurprisingly, they swallowed London’s threat of Scotland being dumped by the EU and lent their vote to the No camp.
Fast forward to the EU referendum. Scotland and the Six Counties voted Remain but England (And poor Wales swamped with English interlopers) voted Leave.
So now we, and the Six Counties, are being dragged out against our wishes.
That is one trick the real real unionists, as big sectarian Ruth calls them, won’t be able to pull again.
Of course those Crown loyalists will still stand in the way of independence. Who can forget their 10,000 brethern from over the water that swaggered through Edinburgh, flutes screeching and big drums banging with their North British friends in support of Westminster rule?
Or the Klan at Firhill against the Jags… remember big Ruth had called for real real unionists to vote Tory to defeat the SNP. The ibrox fans were heard loud and clear on telly singing “F••k the SNP”.
These unionists hate the SNP and that, to me at least, seems a good enough reason to vote SNP and for the break up of their YooKay.
Any evidence for your “indigenous Scots” and the ‘wrong sort’ types?
Positively Klan-like crap.
It was shown that if the vote had been held in the same way as Brexit, in that only Scots could vote, the YES vote would have won the day by polling 60%.
As before, where’s the evidence, as I’d be startled if ballot papers indicated a voter’s place of birth.
“Scots were told we’d be kicked out of the EU if we dared vote Yes”
Actually it was the Spanish Prime Minister who said so in 2013:
“I would like that the consequences of that secession be presented with realism to Scots.
Citizens have the right to be well informed and particularly when it’s about taking decisions like this one.
I respect all the decisions taken by the British, but I know for sure that a region that would separate from a member state of the European Union would remain outside the European Union and that should be known by the Scots and the rest of the European citizens”.
Alex Salmond claimed he had legal advice that this would not be so but refused to release the source or nature of this advice.
Scotland is not a ‘region’ as the Spanish PM knows. He was worried about what he sees as the region of Spain, known as Catalonia, breaki g away from Madrid.
Couple of Celtic fan brits posting here, how strange..
The same people that gave us the stronger together crap are the very same people that have voted for Brexit.
And no doubt will be crying in their tea when their weekly food bill goes up and jobs are lost as the UK exits from Europe.
So stronger together for Scotland to remain part of the UK but that same argument doesn’t hold water when it comes to the EU decision.
Project Fear won the day for the NO vote, Gordon Brown should be ashamed for his last minute intervention.
The No vote was over 55% and the Brexit one was under 40%, so although they’ll undoubtedly be an overlap, it’s just plain wrong to consider it a homogeneous demographic.
Further, I think I saw something like 10% of Indy supporters voted leave.
This is all very very complex. I think the simplistic terms in which the whole IndyRef took place and indeed the brexit ref which was more largely of interest in England and Wales and 6 counties of Ireland than it was here in Scotland.
I voted No. my posting name is NT. No thanks.
You can all show disgust at me. Some of you will even tell me I’m alive an ibrox persuasion.
I know plenty of sevco followers who voted Yes. I know plenty of Celtic men, perhaps not heavy socialist, self identified as part of the proletariat, but they have good Celtic values and are decent people, who espouse values of fairness equality and they voted no.
Phil’s piece here, without wishing to heap praise or scorn, is not simplistic minded. But I do believe he sets out to make his point to many who are looking at this issue in straight black and White terms.
Now I could be wrong. But the breakaway of Scotland from U.K., ends the U.K. then the 6 counties, will inevitably be in a course to leave U.K. and become part of a United ireland….. I believe this is what Phil wants……. perfectly fair ideal to Believe in.
I don’t believe in this ideal. My position on Ireland is simple, it should be a United ireland. I would love to see it. But I would like to see Britain remain as it is……Northern Ireland technically is not part of Britain.
I believe in Britain, as it is. Imperfect in so many ways like other nations.
But I do not believe In U.K.
all I will say is this. How would have Rangers and latterly Sevco have got on in an independent Scotland?
They would have had courts bending over for them (as was proved with their tax cases) the establishment in Edinburgh would all bend over for them. The judiciary the lot.
You would have a Scottish exchequer de facto propping then up.
In the city of London. The sevco are laughed at. , Brown brogues and a Masonic handshake coupled with a fear of Irish catholics isn’t what motivates people. Up here. It’s different.
Let’s remember in post 2008 crash, Edinburgh lost its financial powers with the RBS and more pertinently Bank Of Scotland, this is what brought the Murray empire into line. When the bank of “Presbyterian I love rangers and I hate tims” Scotland. Was swallowed up by Lloyd’s of London, Lloyd didn’t give a shit about rangers and rangersness, they appointed Donald Muir to the board and to hell with the consequences. They got outta dodge. Then rangers died.
Britain for me standing here in Scotland. Land of my birth, of 100% Indian subcontinent extraction, is the devil I know. Indeed something I like. The U.K. well no, cos there’s these horrible people across water who are horrible, if the whole of ireland wants to become fully united good luck to it.
And I wish them well, even the horrible ones who seem to hate a lot.
Independent Scotland and United ireland
Are not one and the same.
It’s complex.
Yes would have won but for two huge mistakes by Sammon. He stated early doors that it would be a yes or no vote end off. Then he allowed Cameron to step in with the vow. A vow that every sensible human being knew was just hot air.
The main points that cause a yes defeat was allowing the ” English ” to claim the pound when it was a Scot that ” invented ” it. Sammon should have stated loud and clear the Scotland would allow the Union to continue to use ” our ” currency.
The second was allowing the vow.
Two huge mistakes that allowed the wavering voter to grasp with both hands the soft option of a stronger Scottish government while staying part of the rUK.
What was Alex Salmond to do? Who’s Sammon? Shoot the PM to stop him speaking? The vow was created by the unionist media through Brown only because they thought they were beat.
It was and still is out with the power of the Scottish government to control the media.
So next time your wavering voter will not be fooled. I’m sure through the natural process of demographics there are fewer older no voters now and a greater number of younger yes voters, that, with those sickened by the lies and brexit should be enough.
I can’t disagree with the general gist of what you have stated, but I do not concur with your assertion it was a generational vote. That was something aid during an interview that was taken out of context and has been tried to be used as a hammer by the unionist. There will be another IndyRef and IMO it will be in the next 2-3 years. Also, the material change in circumstances was a reference to what Brexit may force, not about Independence. Brexit will most likely be the catalyst for the unions undoing. Again, just my humble opinion but I think you misread the mood of Scotland and the mood is getting fouler by the day.
There’s only a couple of other general assertions that I would take issue with, but they are minor. First, in the Empire days there was really only 3 options available to most (young) Scots: 1) they could emigrate out to the Americas or Australia; 2) they could work for the empire in administrative jobs throughout the world; or 3) they could join the British army and fight the wars of the empire.
Many Irishmen faced the same choices through the decades although more Irish probably chose emigration. But many also served in the British Army so I don’t get the point about the soldiers in the picture. They did not have a choice in where they were posted and simply went wherever the generals in London ordered.
I still have faith that the tides of fortune have shifted for Indy and that when the next vote is taken Indy will win the day. Like unionism in the North of Ireland, time is not on their side and the same goes for the unionists in Scotland. Simple demographic changes make the end result a given for the demise of both; it is only a matter of when, not if.
First. The no voters did not bottle it. Project Fear was where people continue to be hounded by cybernats so are afraid to speak out.
Second. Retaining Sterling was not and still is not on offer. TouchyFeely and wee nippy just blustered around the currency saying that of course it was available. Only the deluded would believe that it was.
I hate flag waving regardless of whether it is the union flag or the saltire. Both of these flags can make me proud or sick depending on who is waving them.
I voted against Brexit and have to accept that the vote went against me. The true happy ending would be if the result of IndyRef 1 was accepted by the nationalist minority.
Hail Hail.
Absolute rubbish. The nationalist “minority” (45% is hardly a minority!) would have accepted the result. I did, reluctantly, but there was that “material change” caveat. I never believed there were so many xenophobic idiots in England and Wales so I was shocked by the Brexit vote, but it is a serious “material change” and as such I very much want another indyref and as soon as possible. Anyway, to answer your points…
First: “Project Fear” was very much based on complete lies.
“The only way for Scotland to stay part of the EU is to stay part of the UK” – LIE. Look at what has happened since. The only way to be part of the EU now is independence.
“The only way to ensure UK naval orders for Clyde shipyards is to stay part of the UK. The UK doesn’t give these contracts to foriegn yards” – LIE. The expected order was drastically reduced and other contracts did indeed go to foreign yards (Korean, if memory serves?)
“Scotland will play a lead role a fairer, more equal United Kingdom” – LIE. Cameron started the process for EVEL the day after the result FFS!
I could go on and on. The ignoring of Scotland’s wishes and the upcoming blatant theft of powers from the Scottish parliament show just how much Westminster cares for Scotland.
Second: Retaining Sterling doesn’t have to be on offer. We didn’t and don’t need Westminster’s approval to use the pound, it can be bought on the open market. There was never anything to stop us using it and that was admitted to by the Governor of the BOE at the time (but swept under the carpet by the unionist media, i.e. all of it).
Most of the online news media I read is of a unionist slant and any time I go “below the line” the comments are filled with utter bile about Nicola Sturgeon (usually the word “hate” is used somewhere) or outright lies about whatever SNP member has raised the unionist ire. Any comment in defence of the SNP or independence is met with tirades of abuse. I liken this to the reaction of huns to criticism or truth about their situation. The permarage is strong in both sets of believers.
By contrast, I have yet to see the same in reverse. Even the snippiest “cybernat” comments usually try and make a point or argue their case, not just spew insults. Like “cybernat”, a perjorative term in itself.
Those who say that Sevco would be protected and Celtic/catholics kept down just ignore the fact that we already live in a country where that is the case! At least in an independent Scotland those butcher’s apron waving morons would lose something that is crucial to their sense of superiority and identity. Only in an independent Scotland will there ever be a chance of getting shot of old Lizzie and her brood of leeches. Salmond played it safe during the last indyref with the retaining the pound and monarchy stuff. Don’t upset the applecart too much or you’ll spook those who might make the jump to indy. One thing at a time.
Seeing the 1930’s Germany direction that Brexit Britain is heading for we’d be well out of it.
45% is a minority, as is 49.999999999999999999999999999999999%, although it’s not a small one, which is what I think you meant.
wrt Lies, the only thing that matters is whether people fall for them or not and the polls seem to suggest that despite Brexit, betrayals etc, its still No.
IIRC, one of the main planks of Project Fear was that the only way Scotland could be sure of staying in the EU was as part of the UK. Now you want nationalists to accept an outcome that is neither independent nor European? And incidentally, the pound was never under threat. Plenty of countries around the world use a currency that is not their own – and nobody can stop them.
Accepted for how long?
It is well accepted that yes won the day with the help of those in the over 65 group.
It’s been 4 years now. Their numbers are diminished (not sufficiently as yet).
The majority will be of a Yes persuasion soon.
Wrong, the population is ageing, so there are going to be more 65+ and, I think its that presumption that Phil talks about, when you assume that the No voting 65+ will give way to the new Yes voting 65+.
This doesn’t understand why 65+ are conservative (small “c”) and presumes, without evidence, that this will simply change.
It’s going to be hard to write anything with Brexit still in the mix, the outcome of these negotiations will be pivotal in defining new East/West relationships and maybe this will define your ending Phil.
Coming from the northwest of Ireland myself what has always struck me is the depth of cultural mixing of our peoples even before the plantation, the later mass movement of peoples back to fair Alba has again reinforced already strong Celtic bonds despite a divide and conquer mentality from the aul enemy.
I too never thought victory was within grasp with the first referendum but this time around with the advent of Brexit victory could easily be achievable and that is why the establishment won’t let it happen, another Catalonia is in the offing whilst Scotland still holds the oil reserves.