Sevco by numbers

I’m hugely grateful to Alan Morrison of Celtic By Numbers for agreeing to do his data stuff on Sevco’s new acquisitions.

As regular readers will know, I have a habit of seeking out folk who know more about a subject than I do and asking them questions on your behalf.

It is an important part of journalism, so don’t expect to see this replicated in the mainstream.

Ok Alan, take it away:

 

Hi Phil

You asked for an assessment of the new signings over at Ibrox so far this summer.

Antonio Colak

Colak is a 28 (29 in September) year-old striker from Croatia. He has 3 International Caps totalling 83 minutes, the last in September 2021. He has not been in the squad since.

Colak is definitely an out-and-out striker and at 1.88 metres, a tall, physical one.

Last season he was at PAOK in the Greek Super League – The Rangers will be his 12^th club, including loans. Using data from that season, he seems an all-round striker. You might say he is quite creative for a big lad! Also, he is considered a good finisher, although his xG (0.25) and goals per 90m (0.23) were quite low for that league.

He also contributes well to defensive duties with above average defensive action volumes.

He does not look strong in the air despite his size with zero headed goals and below average aerial duel success.

What is fascinating is that his goal scoring is prolific in his native Croatia (51 goals in 92 appearances for Rijeka) and in Sweden (22 in 41 for Malmo) but sparse in German football and at PAOK (4 in 39). Now, as Celtic fans have seen with Giakoumakis, that may be down to how the player is utilised. For example, Giakoumakis had a very poor record in his native land at AEK Athens but was prolific in Holland for relegated VVV-Venlo. Celtic appear to be using him as Venlo did – as a penalty box finisher as opposed to an all-round forward where we can see his technical ability is limited. It may be a similar story with Colak.

If we split his appearances into “Tier 1” (European Group Stage football and the top 5 leagues – England, France, Germany, Italy and Spain) he has 0.26 Goals and Assists per 90m which is rather modest.

If we look at “Tier 2” (European Qualification plus leagues outside the top 5) then he has 0.7 Goals and Assists per 90m, which is really impressive.

A cynic might conclude he is a bit of a “flat track bully”. It seems he fares very well and is highly productive against lower-quality opposition. This will be very useful in many Scottish matches, however.

My concern (if I cared!) would be, given his age and level of likely improvement, will he be a difference maker at the European Group level and even against Celtic? The evidence of the past suggests not. If he has been signed as the 3^rd striker behind Morelos and Roofe (i.e. a direct Itten replacement) then that is probably a low risk. If he is to be considered the primary striker, then I would be concerned this does not appear an upgrade on current personnel.

At (almost) 29, he will have a very low resale value as regards asset management and the fabled “Player Trading Model” we hear so much about.

Tom Lawrence

Lawrence is a 28-year-old Welshman signed on a “free” transfer after leaving Derby County. I highlight free as, of course, no player is truly thus. On a reputed £37k a week at Derby, and with no fee to be imparted, I imagine his salary may be very close to Lundstram levels at the top of the Ibrox scale. Certainly, way beyond the means of my local Sheffield United with whom he was also linked.

He has been utilised predominantly as a left winger over his career (189 out of 311 appearances in that role) but can play across the attacking midfield positions and even as a second striker.

Lawrence has 23 Welsh Caps over 7 seasons. He has started 17 of 43 squad call-ups, and his last competitive appearance was in November 2020.

His goal record stands out for a winger, and he has been consistently above average in terms of xG and goals over the last few seasons. A noticeable feature is “he likes a shot”, as they say! Expect LOTS of speculative long-range efforts. Predictably, of his last 75 attempts at goal, none have been scored outside the box, and all 7 goals in that period were from inside the box. He won’t be the first or last learning-resistant footballer in that regard!

For a winger, he rates quite poorly for both dribbling and crossing, which is an unusual profile for The Rangers, who like lots of crosses into the box. Consequently, allied to his predilection to shoot, his assist rate and Expected Assist rate are very low for such an attacking wide man. Indeed, he is a very safe passer, suggesting low risk unlike, say, Jota or O’Riley. Defensively he is quite busy, and 62 career yellow plus 4 reds suggests he gets stuck in.

The Welshman has 121 minutes of football in Tier 1 as defined above. He has never played European club football. Again, this is not necessarily a problem versus St Mirren and Ross County, but will he prove capable at the European Group stage level and in other big games against better quality opposition? He might, but we don’t know. Essentially, he is an English Championship-level footballer.

But, playing in a possession dominant side like The Rangers, his numbers would be expected to improve, as indeed should Colak’s, which we need to acknowledge.

At nearly 29, and with winger’s age regressing quicker than other positions, I’d doubt he will be getting better in terms of skills. As with Colak, it also does not appear a signing to burnish the Player Trading Model further.

Rabbi Matondo

The most interesting signing is undoubtedly another Welshman, Matondo. He joins from German second-tier side Schalke 04 (they were promoted back to the top flight for this season). Mooted to fill the seemingly problematic right-wing position (the irony!), he has actually played both wings throughout his career.

Matondo was one of a long line of young players harvested by Manchester City. Very few of these players even get near the first team, where the budget allows for buying the best in the world at each position. But City make money from loan fees and sell-ons. You could call it a fully functioning Player Trading Model. They were certainly successful with Matondo as Schalke 04 splurged £11m on him before he’d made a professional appearance. No wonder they were relegated!

We know from experience though that these City kids tend to be high quality e.g. Denayer, Guidetti, Roberts. Whilst it has clearly not worked out for him in Germany and the Gelsenkirchen outfit are taking a huge haircut in selling him to Glasgow, he is still only 21.

He has been called up to 23 Welsh full international squads and started 4 matches, coming on in a further 7. These minutes have mostly been in friendlies.

His outstanding attribute is blistering pace. The Daily Record even claim he is faster than Usain Bolt. They also implied Joe Aribo was the Championship Manager regeneration of Zidane so make of that what you will.

But for sure, he is a very direct attacker and will carry the ball towards goal at pace, which defenders hate. He is rated as highly creative as no doubt he stretches the opposition and creates space. The problem seems to be other parts of his game.

This tweet is from @JoostvanderLeij, who is a philosopher and has applied statistical methods to devise a methodology for rating all players using four criteria:

 

Replacement Value does not = transfer value. I suggest the reader looks up Joost’s site for more detail.

Celtic have been in similar territory with Oliver Burke. A player who attracted vast transfer fees to numerous clubs on the basis of devastating pace alone. But we all saw his attempts to control a football. I am not saying Matondo is similar, but many players who are extremely quick have, throughout their youth development, breezed past age group players for fun without sometimes learning the art of decision-making. He’ll be entertaining, though.

Like Colak, his Goals and Assists per 90m versus Tier 1 is 0.11 but rising to 0.32 against Tier 2. He will no doubt terrify Motherwell defenders with his pace, but it is unknown how effective he will be at the European Group Stage level.

Having said that, given the reported fee of £2.5m, it is probably a low risk for The Rangers. He is young enough, with sufficient pedigree and international cache to, at worst, be saleable at a cost in future.  The upside is maybe he thrives in a league like Scotland against poorer sides and improves and develops, given his age.

Ok, there you go.

If you haven’t already, then Alan is one of the trio on the Huddle Breakdown.

He doesn’t jump to conclusions and weighs the data carefully for making a call on any player, regardless of who he plays for.

As for the foregoing analysis of Colak, Lawrence and Matondo, it all points to the fact that Sevco does not have a huge transfer budget despite a stellar revenue year.

Alan analyses the data and your humble correspondent continues to follow follow the money.

Have a great weekend wherever you are.