An uncertain centenary

In the decade of centenaries, this might the most ironic of milestones.

As the Six County statelet embarks on its second century, a confluence of events has come together to put a serious question mark over the long-term viability of the polity.

Northern Ireland was carved out of Ulster 100 years ago with a  clear objective, and that was a permanent ethno-religious majority. This was a crudely effective way of maintaining the geopolitical status quo.

The census data of 2021, when it is published later this year or in 2022, will almost certainly show that Protestants in Northern Ireland are now in the minority.

Consequently, the only way for political unionism to maintain support for the current constitutional arrangements is to reach out to those from a Catholic/nationalist background.

Only in the older age cohort, people born in the first decades of the new statelet is the Protestant 2-1 majority now evident.

The younger the slice of the population, the more people there are from a nationalist background.

Of course, religious upbringing and cultural background does not imply political allegiance all of the time, but it is an important signifier.

This opinion poll published today in the Belfast Telegraph some interesting findings on the perception of identity within the different age groups.

{images]

 

 

Of course, the last age group is the future.

That 17% in Narne Arne who profess that they are Bradaish would, in the main, be the Ibrox illiterati.

We know this unfortunate subculture by the leaders they choose.

Although it is now a thing to be derided and mocked, a century ago, Loyalism had state power in the North East of this island, and it wasn’t pretty.

The Northern statelet was born in Pogrom and maintained something close to an Apartheid stance towards the Catholic minority for 50 years.

The massacre of the McMahon family on March 24th, 1922, was the local state laying down a marker about how things were going to be from then on in.

The message was clear:

Fenians would need to know their place.

Indeed, it was a matter of life and death for any Taig who wasn’t aware of their second class status.

It is difficult to argue with the contention that the old Stormont regime gestated a rebellion inside the Bogside and the Short Strand.

When Northern Ireland, ahem, celebrated its 50^th birthday, there was a state of open war in Belfast and the IRA, long consigned to the shadows, was out on the street taking on Crown  Forces.

Beware a risen people.

Now all is changed, changed utterly, and political unionism is in retreat.

Just as in 1916, we have our exiled children in America and gallant allies in Europe.

If Loyalists today wanted to copy their UVF ancestors and land guns at Larne on a Scottish boat, then they better have all of the EU paperwork in order!

The Northern Ireland Protocol puts the Six County statelet into the first phase of an all-island Zollverein.

Moreover, that process will ramp up when the grace periods run out later this year.

Now, if the Brits simply walk out of the Withdrawal Agreement, then it would be in “No Deal” territory.

Consequently,  the friction to trade at the moment would look like a minor irritant.

The reality on the ground is that the chaps in Westminster happily threw Narne Arne under a big red bus with a lie printed on the side.

As 2.9% of the entire UK population, they simply don’t matter to Boris et al.

When this country was partitioned, Britain was at the centre of a global empire.

Today it still hasn’t come to terms with the reality is that it is a second-tier power.

Changed, changed utterly…

Humour has a role to play in how we view this sad centenary, and the consistently brilliant Tadhg Hickey in Cork had this for us today.

Across the island, the conversation has started on what 32 looks like.

Now, that is something that is worth celebrating.