Napoleon liked his generals to be lucky rather than merely skilled at commanding troops in combat.
The little Corsican was fully aware that in the chaos of battle sometimes good luck can be the key element in how a complex situation will unfold.
The military historian Erik Durschmied summed it up brilliantly in his book “The Hinge Factor”.
Sometimes a seemingly minor event can be the hinge that turns out to be a defining moment.
The strapline of the book leads the reader in no doubt as to the central thesis of the work:
“How Chance and Stupidity Have Changed History”.
My personal favourite among the compelling examples which he cites in his book is in Chapter Four:
A Barrel of Schnapps.
Karánsebes, 20th September 1788.
That such a trifling matter could prove to be pivotal in the Austro-Turkish War (1788–1791) is mind-boggling.
If such minor events can prove decisive in the serious business of warfare then they are also undeniably extant in sport.
Consequently, a lucky general can be the beneficiary of a hinge factor on the field of battle and also on the field of play.
His skill is in recognising it when it is happening.
For example, Napoleon never interrupted his enemy when he observed him making a mistake.
In the aftermath of Celtic crashing out of the Champions League without a deal one of the undeniable facts is that has given the club across the Clyde an undeniable bounce.
Once more the Hoops have engineered their own hard Brexit from the riches of UEFA’s top table.
Now, if Sevco navigates past FC Midtjylland tonight then they will come out of the European fixtures this week with a psychological advantage over their richer rivals across the city.
Of course, it will be for future historians of Celtic to look back and analyse what was the specific hinge factor in this historic season should the Hoops stumble this season.
For the avoidance of doubt, the richest club in Scotland still has the means to strengthen the squad while the Scottish transfer window remains open.
That will entail adversely impacting on the bottom line at Parkhead, but that is the cost of failure and Tuesday was very much in that category.
I was reminded yesterday of the immediate aftermath of the AEK Athens fiasco.
My source was someone who had a meeting with a senior person at Celtic at that time.
Dedryck Boyata had just kicked the pram and wasn’t at his post in Greece,.
Therefore, he couldn’t deal with Lampropoulos heading back across goal to give his teammate Livaja a simple finish.
Instead of the imposing Belgian Celtic had Jack Hendry in central defence with tens of millions of pounds of UEFA in the balance.
As with this week, the role of the chief executive in football matters at Parkhead became a talking point among many of the fans.
I’m told that the response of the senior person at Celtic at that time was nothing would change no matter who the manager was.
So it would seem….
I have I have written here on more than a few occasions that post-2012 the only team that can topple Celtic in Scotland is Celtic.
Therefore, the problems must be organic to the Parkhead club for that to happen.
Only the wilfully blind will not see what the common dominator is over the past six seasons.
During that period Celtic have failed on four occasions to get into the Group Stages of the Champions League.
Moreover, it was only when there was a manager who was clearly in charge of all football matters that those two successful qualifications happened (2016-2017 and 2017-2018).
Only time will tell if Mr Gerrard gets a sustained “Cluj Bounce” from Celtic’s implosion this week.
However, it does that turn out to be the case then there should be no doubt about the hinge factor that aided Sevco’s lucky general.
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I think it’s a bit disingenuous to lay the blame for the debacle at the feet of just Peter Lawwell, I don’t get this idea that somehow our CEO doesn’t want us to get into the Champions league. Playing Calmac at left back didn’t work this time as it didn’t work last time, not because of his performance there but his absence in midfield where he can best propel the team. Lenny should have known that, and “technicians” aside, he made a poor decision there. He also made a poor decision regarding the $10M worth of defenders left on the bench, regardless of whether he rates them. 1) If he doesn’t rate them, then why did we sign them, it wasn’t like their names weren’t being bandied about for weeks before we signed them, their arrivals were well telegraphed, did he not look at them? As coach he asks for support and the club supported him with $10M, are we saying our whole scouting set up can’t source decent players? (The same set up that found players like VVD, Wanyama, & Moussa?). That somehow FC Poundland across the city can spend £100,000’s better that we can spend £1M’s? 2) Even if the defenders were not his choice, he should have played them and if we had still lost, he would have had internal leverage over Lawwell et al. I think we are losing sight that our coach/manager made a line-up choice that did not work on the night, that happens, it hurts but it does not mean he is a bad coach, or that we are a bad team, or that FC Poundland will do anything. However if they do give us a close run for the title this year, then we do have to look at ourselves in the mirror, for it will be ourselves to blame. Directing ire at Lawwell isn’t productive, it looks like personal animus because he is wealthy. Before we fire him we should know who we would bring in to replace him, and with 3 Trebles in recent years, a club producing talent like KT, and an exciting squad that prior to Tuesday was playing some swashbuckling football, the current CEO seems to be be doing OK (even if not perfect, like any of the rest of us). Tuesday hurt, I hope we translate that into a doing for Dunfermline at the weekend…
I must say that am very impressed by the quality of the argument made by Mr Mark Gallacher below. Your spelling and grammar are an inspiration to us all, Marky Boy…who would have thought it…an intelligent Loyalist!
Now be a good boy and write a big thank you note to your friend and comrade Peter Lawell…Blue crayon or Bic pen. It’s your choice son. Good luck to you, I haven’t laughed at all since Tuesday night…you are a legend!
Please post again, my sides are killing me! You Were The People. to quote Leigh Griffiths, ‘ Your club’s deid, mate.’
Celts being linked with Fraser Foster FFS. What is going on at the Dear Old Paradise as my Da often said…this ‘ goalkeeper’ makes Craig Gordon look like Peter Shilton. I was doing handstands when he departed and we managed to trouser a shed-load of money from the English club.
Is this Lenny doing the old pal’s act, which he has previous for? I have been supportive of him of him and now is no time to kick a man while he’s down…but I’m now beginning to question my sanity.
Anyhoo Phil, here’s hoping the next few weeks brings massive trouble for the Huns in blue…and I don’t mean Scotland! Now that would cheer me up somewhat. HH
the result on tuesday was a clusterfuck made possible by no other than lennon s selection of wrong players in the wrong position. if i did it in my job i would be sacked , why not him. celtic need to grow a pair asap
Why do u always go on about rangers should u not just talk about Celtic no that’s rite you’re just the same as most celtic fans it’s all about the rangers I know u wont show this so watp
The hinge factor was the cheap skate option of signing Lennon when a better manager should have been brought in.
Sevco’s tails are up at the moment, they appear to be continuing on from last season. I have watched them a few times this season and to be honest they haven’t had much competition due to playing far inferior teams, but I hate to say it, they have looked not too bad. We have played against lesser opposition as well, and our defence is looking, how can I put it, shoite!!! We seriously need to sort this out now or kiss 10inar goodbye. Phil is right PL has a lot to answer for, though in my opinion most of all appointing NFL.
Celtic haven’t got a cluj………..
While a big dissapointment losing out on the champions league again, another treble will more than compensate, our focus should be that now, to remain the top boys in Scotland, and secure number nine on the road to ten in a row, I for one dont care about the Europa league this year, it’s a sideshow that distracts from the real task at hand, namely, to keep sevco chasing us, and spending money they dont have, doing so.
Hail Hail
For the avoidance of doubt…and whilst I recognise his financial ability…I am not a fan of Peter Lawwell.
He has presided over a shocking transfer record over the past few years ( profits made from same notwithstanding) with some real numpties being brought in and the John McGinn debacle last year should have got him the sack.
Given that no one knows who decides which players are to be bought and sold…isn’t it about time that the Club opened up on it…and told us ?
Is it Lawwell …is it Lenny…is it DD….??
Like others …I refuse to believe that Lenny thinks those two are ” pish”…because if he does…he should have the courage of his convictions…and walk.
As for the game…
Ultimately its the guys on the park that win or lose games….but the Manager should have an enormous influence on how they go about their business.
The bottom line for me is…Lenny got too many things wrong and must carry the can.
As I said at the time …It was a cheap and safe appointment and he should never have been near the job.
Feck knows where we go from here….but things need to change….over to you Celtic FC.
As this concerns Lawell and ultimately the financial management of our transfer policy (if that exists), I’ll leave this here. Basically it explains Arsenals transfer activity. God knows what Celtic’s analysis would look like.
https://twitter.com/SwissRamble/status/1161168659861127169
If its’s too long to read , the most relevant quote is ” Part of the fancy financial footwork has simply been a willingness from the #AFC board to be bolder with its cash balances. In the past, it looked like the club wanted to hold enough cash to cover all future obligations, but that always looked to be overly prudent.”
As per any business that does not make required profit margins it’s time to reduce costs or re structure the senior management
To the board do hope you read this doubt it though time for a change it’s obviously not working financially and on the pitch Tuesday was an embarrassment for all at Celtic
What was learned from last night? Surely one of the lessons is that the team which attempts to qualify for the CL next season (and that is far from a foregone conclusion) has to be available from the end of this transfer window. There will always be unforeseen events but players cannot have 1 or 2 games under their belt and play a game of this importance unless it is absolutely necessary. A new right back should have been in place before the AEK Athens game last year. We all knew that Lustig could not defend against a direct opponent with pace and a lower centre of gravity which Kent showed again. Any obvious weakness is exposed even at this stage of the CL. These things have to be deal with now.
Yes indeed Phil but has Major Pain at Paradise gambled on the hinges at Ayebrokes coming off the Safe Door After General Ashley’s Blitzkrieg?
Could he be counting on the SFA dropping the A Bomb on the Forces of Darkness?
Will it be 15 points or the full 30 for the ”Going for 55” Brigade?
All that plus a compliant and incompetent manager are the reasons for being out of the champions league.
Mr Gerrard will certainly get a Cluj bounce if the rumour that Ryan Kent is set to return to him before 1st September becomes true
Did they pay that legal bill yesterday Phil!?
I wouldn’t have thought so as the deadline is tomorrow (16th).
haha, aye right enough!
4:00 pm TODAY!
The ‘Hinge’ factor – someone at Celtic was certainly UNHINGED to go with that line-up the other night !