Once more, I’m hugely grateful to Alan Morrison of Celtic By Numbers for the following.
Phil, you asked me to consider how an analytical / data driven approach could be applied to refereeing decisions in the SPFL.
Foul Analysis
A very simple analysis of fouls awarded for and against can be produced using European ties as a control group / benchmark.
Adding in the concept of Possession Adjustment caters for one team potentially having the ball more than the other.
I outlined this approach in Fair or Foul?
Honest Mistakes
The term “Honest Mistakes” refers to the label used by (usually) ex referees when describing errors made by their successors in games. Any error is, of course, the result of human fallibility and therefore, an honest mistake.
The SPFL champions in 21/22 will most likely enter the Champion’s League Group stages. By Scottish standards, big money is at stake. Let’s hope success is won “on the field” through superior play!
For the purposes of this analysis, I have considered all “big” or “game changing” decisions in matches potentially affecting the top of the SPFL.
This includes, mainly:
- Goals allowed that should have been disallowed
- Goals disallowed that should have been allowed
- Penalties wrongly awarded
- Penalty awards not given that should have been
- Sendings off that should not have been
- Sendings off missed
Methodology
The approach attempts to cut through traditional football rivalry.
Obtaining a fair and unbiased assessment of a major incident in football is largely impossible because:
- We fans are overwhelmingly biased;
- Even when presented with compelling evidence, football fans rarely if ever change their initial opinion; and
- Football fans generally have a poor grasp of the laws of the game.
My method to address concentrates on a) identifying and taking unbiased expert opinion and b) quantifying the impact of refereeing mistakes.
- Unbiased Expert Opinion
A mutual acquaintance in the world of South Yorkshire football is a Sheffield Wednesday supporting referee with no more than a passing interest in or knowledge of Scottish football.
He has agreed to review SPFL contentious incidents and provide an expert opinion on the outcome as if VAR had been in operation. Much like Sky Football Ref Watch.
Whether I agree with his opinion or not is moot. I will publish his verdicts with no risk of a Yellow Card for dissent from me!
- Expected Points
The principle of Expected Points (xPts) is best illustrated with some examples:
- Souttar’s header for Hearts against Celtic was in the 89th minute of the game with the score 1-1. With only 1 minute plus added time to play, the xPts added to Hearts for that goal is 1.7. That is, with the scores level their xPts was already slightly more than 1 (as the home team) and that goal took it to over 2.7 xPts out of the maximum of 3 points for a win. Intuitively we all get an 89th minute goal allowing a team to lead dramatically changes the likely outcome with so few minutes left to equalise.
- Abada’s 16th minute opener against Dundee United recently added 0.7 to Celtics xPts. The goal was early in the game but home teams don’t often lose games from being in front. With 74 minutes left to play, it took Celtic from slightly above 1 xPts to just over 1.7 on the quest for 3. Dundee United’s equaliser 2 minutes later added 0.6 xPts to them.
- On 21st August Turnbull complete his hattrick in the home match versus St Mirren. Whilst this was undoubtedly an important personal landmark for Turnbull, it did virtually nothing to change the game. The goal was scored in 84th minute with Celtic already leading 4-0 and playing against 10 players (see above). Thus, the goal added 0 to Celtic’s xPts.
- Impact of Sendings Off
The impact of Red Cards given / not given was the subject of an article by the Royal Statisticians Society and they concluded that it is NOT easier to play against 10 players! In fact, there is an average points difference when playing with / against 10 men that depends on whether you are the home / away team.
- Impact of Goals
As described above not all goals are equal. A 90TH minute winner does a lot more for the number of points you can expect to get from a tie than the 5th goal in a 5-0 rout.
Using that principle, we can weight the xPts won or lost due to a goal being rightly / wrongly disallowed / allowed.
All of these concepts are explained in more detail in Assessing Impact of Honest Mistakes on my Celtic By Numbers site.
In terms of what incidents to refer, it comes down to what is hot on social media and e.g. Sportscene and traditional media in the aftermath of games.
Put another way, you won’t be short of football fans greeting about perceived injustices to their team!
All I ask is for video evidence for the Yorkshire Whistler to review.
The Season So Far
Applying the above methodology to the SPFL season so far reveals that of 21 major incidents reviewed, only 10 have been deemed Correct by the Yorkshire Whistler. Oh dear.
Of the 11 incorrect calls, 8 have had an Expected Points impact.
Of the 8 calls with Expected Points impacts, Celtic have benefitted from 2 (penalty not awarded to St Mirren and penalty not awarded to Motherwell) and been hampered by 3 (Goal wrongly disallowed vs Hearts, sending off missed vs Dundee and sending off missed vs Dundee Utd).
The Rangers have benefitted from 3 (penalty not awarded vs Ross County, offside goal given vs Motherwell and sending off missed vs Hearts) and been hampered by none so far.
What does this all mean?
After 9 matches, Celtic have 1.13 fewer points than expected due to Honest Mistakes and The Rangers have 2.1 more points than expected. Given the gap between the pair is only 4 points, that 3.23 xPts difference COULD be crucial at the end of the season.
But I tend to side with the experts on these matters and am sure this will even out by the end of the season.
You can read the detailed verdicts on all 21 decisions on Celtic By Numbers.
Discover more from Phil Mac Giolla Bháin
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
What about Halliday’s red for the challenge on McGregor?
Hi that is covered in detail here – http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/spfl-honest-mistakes-in-july-and-august-21/
I note the penalty denied Dundee Utd against Celtic is not included.
Any reason for this?
Yes, see my comment further down but more particularly the referenced CbN article, which explains this fully.
It is covered in detail here – http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/spfl-honest-mistakes-in-september-21/
Not sure I fully understand the thinking, BUT, Hearts V Sevco ended 1-1 but Hearts were denied a penalty when Boyce was bundled over in the box and a red card should have gone for the throat grab. Therefore Sevco benefited greatly due to 2 honest mistakes in this one game alone.
Another instance missed by many is Roofe was offside but fortunately did not manage to score.
Typical of the GFA ( Glasgow Football Association ) Neilson then gets a red card and a further two games ban for complaining that the ref did not apply the rules.
Trying to claim Celtic are hard done by, by the officials, is seriously funny, simply ask any supporter of any other team and you will find both the Glasgow teams get decisions that other teams do not.
John, the evidence so far, as outlined here, shows that Celtic aren’t getting the rub of the green, so if you’re looking for confirmation bias then, I think, you’ve come to the wrong place.
Hopefully, by the end of the season, Celtic will have recovered their “lost” points and others who have gained so far will “lose” theirs, so that everyone is neutral; wouldn’t that be a wonderful thing?
With regard to Celtic and Hearts, in the first game of the season, (independently assessed) Halliday should’ve been red-carded and Celtic shouldn’t have had a “goal” incorrectly ruled out for offside. Given those game changing decisions, its likely that 0 points would have been 3.
If you’re genuinely not interested in an independent assessment of the evidence and prefer your own bias then I don’t think this and subsequent articles on the subject are for you.
Just a wee correction but the Yorkshire Whistler deemed the halliday Yellow Card correct – see the reasoning here – http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/spfl-honest-mistakes-in-july-and-august-21/
Absolutely James – Celtic fans relate everything to Rangers and ignore everyone else.
This excercise just makes Celtic fans look ridiculous to non OF fans.
Really disappointed Phil McG propagating this nonsense.
The best thing to do is introduce VAR though it won’t satisfy the paranoid section of Celtic support.
Hi thanks for your comment. I am happy to include any decision affecting the title race. I do not have the time to watch every match therefore rely on media and social media to highlight contentious decisions. In my experience fans of all clubs are not slow to voice concerns when such arise. happy for you to connect with me on Twitter and highlight any such incidents – @Alan_Morrison67
Like the clearly onside goal that was flagged offside against Hearts at 1-1 ? Or the clear handball on the goal line against Inverness Cally in the SC Semi final. Martians could see that one. No pen and no subsequent sending off. No doubt you can cite decisions in favour of Celtic but to say other teams don’t benefit from bad decisions, honest or otherwise, is risible.
I would of course point you to a team that got 4 pens in one game then had the audacity to mention one they didn’t get.
JS.
The incidents you mention are covered in detail here – http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/honest-mistakes-16-10-21/
Hi Phil,
I’m not sure how the “penalty” not awarded to Motherwell can be seen as a bonus for Celtic when in fact it wasn’t a penalty as one of their players handled the ball first.
I’ve contacted Allan and he has kindly agreed to address these comments in a couple of days.
In the CbN article, Honest Mistakes 16/10/21,this is discussed and in the ref’s opinion the ball didn’t hit the Motherwell players arm, albeit caveated by poor camera angles.
In the previous article, SPFL Honest Mistakes in September ’21, he assesses the “stonewall” ((c) MSM) penalty denied to Dundee United and agrees with the Sky Ref Watch that this should have been a foul to Celtic so no impact and therefore not counted as a game/point- changing decision.
The neutral referee has said that 2 wrongs make a right – debate able – plus this guy said that England pen against Denmark was justified when even Lee Dixon said it was never a pen.
Mark Clattenburg admitted on 5 Live that it was more difficult reffing against biggest teams because of press and social media backlash with decisions. Magnify x10 & you have the Old Firm effect in Scotland.
You’re really struggling here with the facts.
The process used here is exactly what VAR would use ie if there was a foul in the lead up to a debatable penalty decision then the penalty wouldn’t be given.
This is the process used everywhere, whether you like it or not and may much prefer that a foul on a Celtic player is ignored and a subsequent foul by a Celtic player is punished but tough that’s not how it works.
The other stuff is irrelevant rambling nonsense. The neutral ref is an unnamed one, so what this has to do with England-Denmark, Lee Dixon (seriously?), god only knows.
If Clattenburg is right and this affects the Scottish game then this will be teased out by this independent analysis.
Why are you so frightened of this; what do you and your team have to lose?
Hi Mr Gerard Sweeney. The neutral, professional referees opinion was he could not see the Motherwell player handball and that the decision should have been Motherwell penalty – here is the full verdict – which is detailed on my site:
———
As the Motherwell forward flicks the ball, the ball appears to catch Bolingoli on his left arm. All five Motherwell players in camera shot all instantly spin round and appeal for the penalty decision.
On replay I would agree that the ball hits Bolingoli raised arm and the referee’s decision should now be:
• did Bolingoli make his body shape unnaturally bigger (which he did); and
• was the bigger shape not a consequence of the players natural body movement for that specific situation (how the current law is worded).
For me, Bolingoli is caught slightly unawares by the bounce of the ball and raises his arm instinctively but I would say this is NOT part of his natural movement.
I believe the referee is partially unsighted by both the Motherwell forward and covering Celtic defender and if he has seen the contact, he would have awarded the penalty for handball.
I have also reviewed the Motherwell number 9’s contribution in the build up to this passage of play, looking for a potential handball prior to Bolingoli’s.
From the camera angles presented, as the Motherwell forward chests the ball with his arms extended, the ball bounces off his chest and I don’t believe there is any contact with the left arm before the ball then contacts Bolingoli. A different camera angle might justify reassessing this judgement, but I don’t see any deviation in the spin or movement of the ball once leaving his chest to suggest the left arm contacts the ball.
For me, no handball offence committed by the Motherwell forward.
Verdict: Incorrect decision. Penalty kick should have been awarded.
———-
You may not agree. I may not agree. But them’s the rules. He is neutral and i am going with his EXPERT opinion, not my biased and non expert opinion.
Totally agree
Also, no one mentions there was an almost identical incident at the other end. IF Motherwell should have had a penalty then Celtic should also have had one
Gerard – you can read the full explanation here – http://celticbynumberscom.ipage.com/honest-mistakes-16-10-21/
Good to read however, it’s not telling us anything we didn’t ‘know’ already but, now we have these stats to back it up so, thanks to Allan Morrison for that and yourself for obliging him.
The referees in Scotland won’t like these stats though, and that makes me very happy knowing they’ll be on ‘trial’ for those ‘honest mistakes’ honesty isn’t their strong point you know
VAR was supposed to be the answer. Well it’s not. Look at the Rangers 2nd goal last night, offside all day long, yet whoever reviewed the slow mo decided that Roofe was onside when he clearly wasn’t.
What next? Employ another pair of eyes to review the VAR review?
If this had been a cup Final, or a promotion or relegation issue, then there would have been hell to pay for the official making such an obvious wrong call.
That was a perfect example of VAR working properly.
To everyone watching with the naked eye, it was “offside” with offensive player leaning forward looking clearly ahead of the defensive player leaning the other way.
Its only with VAR analysis, we can see the defender’s trailing leg is playing the attacker onside.
We might not like that, as it was themums who benefited, but it was the correct decision and one probably not given with the naked eye, other than as an “honest mistake” for that team. 😉
European refs & VAR all corrupt and anti Celtic as well? Get a grip man.